Hybrid System Modeling and Estimation for Arrival Time Prediction in Terminal Airspace

摘要

In this Note, we have derived a stochastic nonlinear hybrid model to describe the aircraft's behavior in the descent stage. Under the framework of the stochastic nonlinear hybrid model, an aircraft tracking and estimated time of arrival (ETA) prediction algorithm has been proposed based on the state-dependent-transition hybrid estimation algorithm, which can account for continuous state-dependent flight mode transitions. Because the flight plan and procedure information can be effectively incorporated into the proposed algorithm, more accurate ETA prediction can be achieved. The performance of the proposed algorithm has been validated using an actual descending approach scenario.