Scheduling Risk Evaluation for the Integrated Design of Blanket System Project for CFETR Based on Fuzzy PRET Method

摘要

In the framework of the conceptual design and engineering design of the Chinese Fusion Engineering Testing Reactor, some preliminary investigation and estimation of the encountered risk factors in the integrated design process of blanket system were carried out. Sub-tasks of the entire project need to be decomposed before performing the integrated design of blanket system in order to perform a risk assessment for each task. To describe the key time of design process and predict the dates of tasks, a fuzzy PERT method is presented. The integrated design of blanket system project is divided into several tasks, which includes the optimistic time, pessimistic time and the most likely time of each task based on the experience of designer and analyst. The earliest start/finish time, latest start/finish time and slack time of each task is calculated by using the fuzzy PERT method. As a result, the critical path is found for scheduling assessment. The completing probability of the project under different requirements during the design period is calculated, which can provide valuable reference for the scheduling assessment of the integrated design of blanket system project.