Predicting the effects of ionising radiation on ecosystems by a generic model based on the Lotka-Volterra equations

摘要

The present work describes a model for predicting the population dynamics of the main components (resources and consumers) of terrestrial ecosystems exposed to ionising radiation. The ecosystem is modelled by the Lotka-Volterra equations with consumer competition. Linear dose-response relationships without threshold are assumed to relate the values of the model parameters to the dose rates. The model accounts for the migration of consumers from areas characterised by different levels of radio-nuclide contamination. The criteria to select the model parameter values are motivated by accounting for the results of the empirical studies of past decades. Examples of predictions for long-term chronic exposure are reported and discussed.