Oil Refining Planning under Petroleum Products Demand Uncertainties: Case of Algeria

摘要

This paper aims to analyze, with a linear dynamic programming, the Algerian refining industry development by 2030 in the presence of uncertainties, both on the domestic demand and the exportation of the petroleum products. Currently, the Algerian refining industry has to be adapted to meet demand progress both in terms of volume and also in terms of specifications, in a general context marked by a strong volatility of the oil markets. Commonly, refining operations planning models are based on a deterministic linear programming. However, because of the demand fluctuation, and other conditions for the market, many parameters should be considered as uncertain such as the demand and the exportation. The impact of such uncertainties on the development's pattern of refining capacities is analyzed with a stochastic model. Finally, the results of both deterministic and stochastic models are compared.