NATURAL GAS AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION IN MOZAMBIQUE: SOME PRELIMINARY EVIDENCE

摘要

Although long known to hold energy reserves, it was not until the beginning of the 21st century that the extent of Mozambique's natural gas resources came to light with the discoveries of massive fields. Correspondingly, there was great optimism that the development of the country's hydrocarbons would prove transformative. Despite the fact in 2013 of a supergiant gas discovery made in Mozambique that is considered to be the second largest gas find in the world, the African nation has struggled to benefit from this significant resource and translate it into greater developmental achievements for the larger population. Additionally, He is based at the School of Built Environment, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia. this gas find is so sizeable that it is estimated that there is enough gas to fuel South Africa for 150 to 200 years on its own. In essence, Mozambique's natural gas has the potential to be a true game changer, not just for the nation itself, but also for meeting Africa's regional energy needs. Yet the potential for squandering this opportunity is a concern for many who fear that Mozambique may travel down the same path of other commodity- and oil-rich African states that have failed to invest the returns of a non-renewable resource into the renewable resource of its own populace. Echoing this concern was the April 11, 2014 Radio France International broadcast that asserted the discovery of natural gas in Mozambique neither benefited the local population nor contributed to the economic growth of the country, considered to be one of the poorest states in Sub-Saharan Africa. The argument seems to be in line with what P. Uetela emphasizes as a lack of involvement and empowerment of the population, which is fundamental for growth and change in Mozambique. The assumptions also are linked to the well-publicized Radio France International broadcast suggesting there has been a failure to invest the revenues from natural resources into other key sectors such as education, infrastructure, industry, and agriculture. If this situation is not corrected, the broadcast claimed, the gas industry would perpetually lead the country to higher levels of poverty-a situation akin to that of Angola, Chad, and Nigeria, where natural resources have contributed to continuous strife and civil wars. Indeed, in her contribution to the Journal of Democracy, E. Azevedo-Harman, a member of the Scientific Council and Professor at the Catholic University of Mozambique, recently noted that "Mozambique, as it appears, has joined the ranks of those countries that live in severe poverty while the spectre and promise of wealth loom before them." In contrast, the few studies on the gas sector suggest that it has been growth enhancing (M. Parker and H. Kreuze, G. Melina and Y. Xiong, and J. Demierre et al.), in spite of concerns by others about transparency (see, for example, the works of D. Nombora). In turn, one wonders what kinds of transformation have been sparked by the natural gas industry in Mozambique.