Will the Stork Return to Europe and Japan? Understanding Fertility within Developed Nations

摘要

The last 30 years have witnessed a social change unprecedented in human history: a variety of high-income nations have experienced fertility declines so large that these countries are far below replacement-level fertility. Total fertility rates in 2005 are as low as 1.3 children per woman in Italy, Spain, Germany, and Japan . Within the high-income countries of the world, no countries are solidly above the fertility rate of 2.1 children per women that is needed to replace the population at a constant level, with only the United States, New Zealand, Ireland, Iceland, and France above 1.9 children per woman. Absent any change in immigration policy, populations in Italy, Spain, and Germany will all be declining within the next two decades. Japan's population began declining in 2005 and will continue to fall for the indefinite future. While other cultures have had brief episodes of less-than-replacement-level fertility, this is the first time in recorded history that large populations with high and growing per capita income have failed to reproduce themselves over an extended period of time.