This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

摘要

The recent financial crisis and the subsequent economic recession have led to an increasing interest in finding out the causes of crises and more importantly, what can be done to prevent future crisis. In This Time Is Different, Reinhart and Rogoff, economics professors at the University of Maryland and Harvard University, respectively, offer their insights based on exploring "eight centuries of financial folly." They point out that the this-time-is-different syndrome, the delusion that "financial crises are things that happen to other people in other countries at other times; crises do not happen to us, here and now" (p. 1), has contributed significantly to financial crises. Their message is simple but powerful: we have been here before and this time is never different. In their words: "No matter how different the latest financial frenzy or crisis always appears, there are usually remarkable similarities with past experience from other countries and from history. Recognizing these analogies and precedents is an essential step toward improving our global financial system, both to reduce the risk of future crisis and to better handle catastrophes when they happen" (p. xxv).