Portrait of a Crisis

摘要

The Bush expansion (2001-2007) slowed in 2005-2006 and began to decline in 2007- Empirical data show why it declined. The expansion followed the same patterns all capitalist expansions, but more sharply. This pattern showed slowing of business revenue rises and speeding up of cost increases. It was long-run trends in three institutions that turned that recession into Great Recession. They are housing, finance, and the rest of the world. Housing had a strong bubble, then began a decline in 2006 and continued that decline until today (2011). Credit had a very long and very strong bubble, then began a decline in 2007. Credit actually remained rising a little into 2008. Then there was a terrible financial crisis in the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009. Finally, the rest of the world had the same weaknesses and passed into crisis itself as a result of the U.S. crisis.