Variations in the environment, energy and macroeconomic interdependencies and related renewable energy transition policies based on sensitive categorization of countries in Africa

摘要

The disparities in development levels of countries in Africa necessitate correspondingly sensitive categorization approaches because effective renewable energy-related (RER) decisions, policy-making, and subsequent implementation hinges on workable categorization indices. However, studies on sensitive categorization approaches for energy-environment-economy (3E) interdependencies for Africa is rare. This study uses a sensitive characteristic-driven approach to explore the interdependencies in 3E indicators for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, renewable energy consumption (REC), fossil fuel energy consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), population, and gross fixed capital formation in 39 African countries. Further, we forecast the dollar values of policy innovations necessary to facilitate the transition to 100% renewable energies for 2030. Using balanced data spanning 2000-2014, the empirical results from the panel vector error-correction model show long-run Granger causality in CO2 emissions, REC and GDP models for Africa, but no evidence of such relationship was found four sub-panels. The results depict varied individual unidirectional and bidirectional causalities among the variables in each panel. Evidence from variance decomposition analysis show that similar to 93% of innovations required to achieve renewable energy-led Africa must happen in REC. Results from the high precision own-data-driven forecast puts total energy demand in Africa at similar to 25QBtu in 2030 with similar to 40% from renewables. Estimates of the dollar value of innovations depict that it would cost Africa similar to US$3367.2 billion [in 2030 only] to transition to 100% renewables. We find RER investment (RERIs), in billion US$, ranging from 2.69 to 1274.12 for seven sub-panels. Yet, the panel of Moderate Lower Middle-Income Economies need not to make further investments because their existing REIRs could be enough to help the region reach 100% renewables by 2030. The findings herein imply that RER policies in Africa must be intensified to achieve 100% renewable energy target. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.