Critical technologies for sustainable energy development in Brazil: technological foresight based on scenario modelling

摘要

An important task for energy innovation is to identify opportunities using well-established criteria and methods. This study develops a methodology to identify critical technology groups for a sustainable low carbon energy system and evaluates innovation opportunities within those technology groups in Brazil. This method integrates a mixed-integer optimization model (MESSAGE) with more than 300 mapped processes with the technological foresight exercise, creating a novel approach to the innovative technology selection criteria. Findings for Brazil show that fossil fuels will still play an important role, but renewables, like wind energy and biomass together, might reach more than 30% of total electric generation. Moreover, carbon dioxide emissions reductions may exceed 50% in high tax scenarios. The most relevant innovation potential for Brazil occurs in the biomass, wind sectors and in carbon capture in ethanol production. The study points that long-term future is uncertain and decision to invest in innovation is risky and should account for the stage of technological and knowledge development in different countries. The strategy for innovation might, thus, include international partnerships that join efforts and a national development strategy focussing on Brazilian particularities. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.