Steve Chan, China, the U.S., and the Power-Transition Theory: A Critique

摘要

The rise of China and its consequences for the international system have been the subject of much debate among IR scholars over the past few years. In this book, Steve Chan offers a timely contribution to this debate by analyzing the rise of China through a critique of the key tenets of power-transition theory (PST). Chan refuses to treat the case of China's ascent as a special and unique event. Instead, he uses this case to support the main argument he makes, which is the central contribution of this volume. In short, the author criticizes the main assertions of PST and uses the rise of China and its alleged threat to the US as the main analytical tool to make his point. Chan's methodological approach draws from historical analogies and from the use of several IR mid-level theories. Chan's main problem with PST is the latter's central argument that revisionist states dissatisfied with the prevailing status quo are likely to start war with the hegemon. Chan argues this is a flawed assumption and that it is the anxious declining hegemon seeking to maintain its position which actually is more likely to launch a war against a rising latecomer. He supports this claim through the use of rationalist and prospective theories of decision choice. He further buttresses it with evidence from the Soviet Union's behavior towards Germany as well as an exploration of China's strategic goals.