Export sales forecasting by UK firms Technique utilization and impact on forecast accuracy

摘要

While the use of forecasting techniques has been widely researched, the empirical literature hardly distinguishes between export and domestic sales forecasting. Based on a survey of UK manufacturing exporters, the present study provides empirical insights into the popularity of different forecasting techniques and the factors determining the type of technique employed in an export setting. Moreover, the link between use of different forecasting techniques and export forecast accuracy is tested. The results show a clear preference for judgmental techniques over a variety of forecasting levels; however, the choice and the number of techniques utilized do not seem to impact on forecast accuracy. This implies that, in order to improve forecast accuracy, attention needs to be focused beyond the question of technique selection. Issues such as the quality of the data utilized and the organizational practices associated with the export sales forecasting process are thus identified as key directions for future research.