An Analysis Of Real Estate Market Changes, United States 1989-2005

摘要

Home price changes are of critical importance in the economy. The purposes of this paper are to explore important housing market issues, analyze price trends, develop price forecasting models, and consider the implications for the housing market. The research demonstrates that housing market models have predictive value and that the value can be enhanced by input from market analysts with information not yet reflected in available data. Results of the combined analyses indicate that "frothy" local housing markets may be vulnerable to a significant price correction due to deteriorating economic conditions, but also if mortgage rates increase substantially or lenders tighten credit terms.