EXPLAINING THE FERTILITY PUZZLE IN SRI LANKA

摘要

Fertility transition in Sri Lanka began in the mid-1960s and the declining trend continued over the decades. The Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) of 2000 showed the total fertility rate (TFR) reaching 1.9 births per woman, a level below replacement fertility. The next DHS of 2006/7 showed a TFR of 2.3. Some have interpreted this pattern as indicating a reversal of the fertility transition. This paper casts doubts on the below-replacement fertility revealed in the 2000 survey.