Clinical and Statistical Prediction After 50 Years: A Dedication to Paul Meehl

摘要

The special issue in honor of Paul Meehl's contribution to judgment and decision making started off innocently enough. In 2002, the first editor (Morera) organized a symposium for the Annual Meetings of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making entitled, "Decision Decomposition in the Real World." In attendance at this symposium was Robyn Dawes. Participants for this symposium included the first editor's student, Claudia Gonzalez-Vallejo and some of her students, and Hal Arkes and Don Kleinmuntz. After one of the talks, Don Kleinmuntz informally remarked that Meehl's classic text, Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A theoretical analysis and review of the evidence, had been published almost 50 years ago and we were still discussing the merits of decision decomposition. As a result of this symposium, Dawes and Morera spoke about a special issue to commemorate Meehl's classic text. During the review process, Paul Meehl passed away and the special issue became a dedication to him.