System Strategy for Guaranteed Complex Engineering System Functioning in Real Operating Conditions

摘要

There is proposed the system strategy for the guaranteed operation of a complex engineering system (CES) oriented to the timely detection and elimination of reasons for the possible transition of an operational state to aninoperative one based on systems analysis of multifactorial risks of abnormal situations, reliable estimating the margin of permissible risk for different CES operation modes and forecasting the key indicators of the object survivability for a specified operation period. There are given the models for forecasting and estimating the permissible risk margin which are the basis for implementation of the proposed strategy as the information platform for technical diagnostics. As an example, the functioning of the closedcirculating water supply system is presented.