Evidence of urban-induced precipitation variability in arid climate regimes

摘要

The study employs a 108-year precipitation historical data record, global climate observing network observations and satellite data to identify possible anomalies in rainfall in and around two major arid urban areas, Phoenix, Arizona and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The analysis reveals that during the monsoon season, locations in northeastern suburbs and exurbs of the Phoenix metropolitan area have experienced statistically significant increases in mean precipitation of 12-14% from a pre-urban (1895-1949) to post-urban (1950-2003) period. Further analysis of satellite-based rainfall rates suggests the existence of the anomaly region (AR) over a 7-year period. The anomaly cannot simply be attributed to maximum topographic relief and is hypothesized to be related to urban-topographic interactions and possibly irrigation moisture. Temperature records suggest that Riyadh has experienced an adjustment in mean temperature in response to the growth of urban surfaces (e.g. the so-called urban heat island effect). While ground-based precipitation records also indicate an upward trend in mean and total precipitation in and around Riyadh in the last 10-15 years, it is difficult to attribute the increase to urbanization because other less urbanized stations in Saudi Arabia also show a similar increase. Recent satellite-based precipitation estimates indicate an AR 50-100 km north of Riyadh, but this study is not robust enough to conclusively link it to urbanization although certain climate-regime attributes suggests that it might be.