Estimating the earthquake occurrence rates in Corinth Gulf (Greece) through Markovian arrival process modeling

摘要

The Markovian Arrival Process (MAP) is applied as a candidate model to describe the time-varying earthquake activity in Corinth Gulf, Greece. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to study the earthquake temporal evolution with the specific class of MAPs. A complete catalogue is used for the earthquake temporal distribution investigation, along with data sets of different magnitude cutoffs. The study area is divided into its western and eastern subareas, and possible variations in the earthquake occurrence times were sought. Hidden states of MAPs correspond to different levels of seismicity, and hence various numbers of states are examined. Akaike and Bayes information criteria are implemented for identifying the best model, and comparison to the most known and broadly accepted theoretical interevent time distributions is provided. In all cases, the fitted MAPs with phase type distributed intearrival times outperform the models with other distributions. Important indicators of the underlying Markov process are computed, and the earthquake frequency is approximated by the counting process. The analysis demonstrates high index of burstiness for the earthquake generation in the eastern part, i.e. long quiescent periods alternate with short ones of intense seismic activity.