Error analysis of stochastic flight trajectory prediction models

摘要

This paper focuses on the analysis of errors between a flight trajectory prediction model and flight data. A novel stochastic prediction flight model is compared with the popular fly-by and fly-over turn models. The propagated error is measured using either spatial coordinates or angles. Depending on the case, the distribution of error is estimated and confidence bounds for the linear and directional mean are provided for all three stochastic flight models.