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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of applied econometrics >EXTREME US STOCK MARKET FLUCTUATIONS IN THE WAKE OF 9/11
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EXTREME US STOCK MARKET FLUCTUATIONS IN THE WAKE OF 9/11

机译:9/11来临后美国股市的极端波动

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摘要

We apply extreme value analysis to US sectoral stock indices in order to assess whether tail risk measures like value-at-risk and extremal linkages were significantly altered by 9/11. We test whether semi-parametric quantile estimates of 'downside risk' and 'upward potential' have increased after 9/11. The same methodology allows one to estimate probabilities of joint booms and busts for pairs of sectoral indices or for a sectoral index and a market portfolio. The latter probabilities measure the sectoral response to macro shocks during periods of financial stress (so-called 'tail-βs'). Taking 9/11 as the sample midpoint we find that tail-βs often increase in a statistically and economically significant way. This might be due to perceived risk of new terrorist attacks.
机译:我们将极值分析应用于美国行业股指,以评估风险价值和极端联系等尾部风险度量是否被9/11显着改变。我们测试9/11之后“下行风险”和“上升潜力”的半参数分位数估计是否增加。使用相同的方法可以估算成对的部门指数或部门指数和市场组合的共同繁荣和萧条的概率。后一种概率衡量了部门在金融压力期间对宏观冲击的反应(所谓的“尾巴βs”)。以9/11作为样本中点,我们发现尾巴βs通常以统计学和经济上重要的方式增加。这可能是由于新的恐怖袭击的风险。

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