The Second Time Around There Ought to be a Law

摘要

The second time you walk through the river neither you nor the river are the same.~([1]) This advice calls out from history to those who seek to chart the future course of NAS architecture. In that context the authors suggest that a dimension of ATM planning that has consistently thwarted the forecasters and designers is the lack of concurrent user implementation. ATM design that depends on broad, universal voluntary user compliance to deliver the promised results is folly. At best, there is a gulf between the early adopters who seek immediate benefits and the skeptics or those satisfied with the status quo. However, the passage of time has changed both the river and those crossing to the extent that we need a balanced approach that links airborne and ground deployment. Put another way, the investors in the infrastructure (congress, taxpayers, ATM, etc.) need to face up to the reality that "hoping" for a reciprocal investment from the users (aircraft operators) is not a rational basis on which to proceed.