PREDICTION OF SUNSPOT CYCLE 24 BASED ON GEOMETRIC INDICES OF SUNSPOT CYCLES 17 TO 23

摘要

Prediction of the peak amplitude, duration of the rise time, and the length of Sunspot Cycle 24 are made through a statistical analysis using some of the derived parameters called geometric indices of Sunspot Cycles 17 to 23. The geometric parameters considered are: The rate of the ascent phase, rate of the descent phase, maximum amplitude, rise time, fall time, and length. These parameters are computed from cycles 17 to 23. Then, the pair wise correlation between these six parameters computed. A strong correlation is found between the rate of ascent phase and amplitude, rate of the ascent phase and rise time, and the rise time and length. The linear regression models derived from these correlations are directly used to predict the peak amplitude, duration of the rise time, and the length of sunspot cycle 24. The rate of rise computed from the initial 30 months of data is enough to predict the peak amplitude, epoch of the occurrence of peak amplitude and total length of the cycle. The predicted features of smoothed sunspot cycle 24 are: Maximum amplitude of cycle is 73.52 ± 70.6 numbers, length of cycle is 148 ± 7.3 months, i.e., cycle 24 ends between December 2020 and April 2022, and the occurrence of maximum amplitude is 52 ± 3.1 months, i.e, cycle 24 reach to peak amplitude between January 2013 and July 2013.