An Energy Transition That Relies Only on Technology Leads to a Bet on Solar Fuels

摘要

The skepticism over the world's ability to overcome the collective actior problems and the reluctance tc embrace technologies such as CCS and BECCS has created space for ar alternative narrative. In turn, that relies on technologies that are more uncertain prospects but offer the promise of less hindrance from the problems that have held back the deployment of CCS and biofuels. This narrative, All Renewable, explores the rapid technological progress to make solar fuels affordable and scalable over an unprecedentedly short time period. It presents a daunting technical challenge. While affordable, All Renewable is still a significantly more expensive route than Balancing Act. Furthermore, Balancing Act is more resilient; All Renewable will only work if all of its five components make great technological advances. Yet, if solving the co-ordination problems of Balancing Act proves insurmountable, the world may be forced to commit to All Renewable to address climate change, whether it wants to or not. In orderto avoid postponing action and hence making a late, risky bet on All Renewable by default, we recommend that it would be a prudent policy to stimulate developments along both pathways simultaneously. If only some of the elements of All Renewable prove successful, then they are likely to benefit Balancing Act anyway.