Clinging on

摘要

1. The disputed results of the August 2020 presidential election triggered unprecedented mass protests in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, and in other cities across the country, threatening President Alexander Lukashenka's hold on power.2. The European Union and other Western countries are likely to introduce sanctions against Lukashenka's administration, reducing political, diplomatic, and economic ties to a minimum.3. Russia is almost certain to play a crucial role in the current Belarusian crisis, most likely supporting the continuation of Lukashenka's rule, although Moscow will very likely seek concessions from the Belarusian president in exchange for ongoing support.