Electrical Blackouts: A Systemic Problem

摘要

About every four months, the United States experiences a blackout large enough to darken half a million homes. As long ago as 1965, a massive blackout in New York captured the nation's attention and started remedial action. But that was almost 40 years ago, and still we have not ended blackouts nor even reduced their frequency significantly. Major advances in system regulation and control often evolve in complex systems only after significant accidents open a policy window. The recent blackouts in this country and abroad have created such an opportunity. The day after the August 14, 2003, blackout, President George W. Bush and Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien directed a joint U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force to investigate the causes of the blackout and the ways to reduce the possibility of future outages. On November 19, the task force reported that the blackout was due to human error. In laying the blame on operators in two control centers, this interim report follows a long tradition of singling out individuals and companies who made the wrong decisions. Firing individuals and suing companies might be satisfying to those who suffered in the blackout, but it will do little to prevent future blackouts. Similar problems are common in generation and transmission companies, as examination of the frequency and geographic distribution of blackouts shows.