Was Sinn Fin Dying? A Quantitative Post-Mortem of the Party's Decline and the Emergence of Fianna Fil

摘要

This article calls for a reappraisal of the consensus surrounding the split within Sinn Fin in 1926 that led to the foundation of Fianna Fil. It demonstrates that quantitative factors cited to show Sinn Fin's 'terminal' decline - finances, cumann (branch) numbers, and election results - and to explain de Valera's decision to leave Sinn Fin and establish a rival republican organisation, Fianna Fil, do not provide sufficient objective grounds to explain the republican leader's actions. The article demonstrates that Sinn Fin's election results during the period in question (1923-26) were encouraging and the decline in finances and cumann numbers can be explained by the fact that the base year used to compare progress was 1923, an election year. Moreover, the article compares the performance of Sinn Fin to the first five years of Fianna Fil (1926-31) to show that what has been interpreted as terminal decline can also be attributed to normal inter-election lulls in party activity. Correspondingly, subjective factors - e.g. personal rivalries, differences in ideology, organisational style and levels of patience in terms of achieving political power - were most likely the determining factors rather than organisational decline.