Transmission congestion evaluation of power systems using non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique

摘要

Conventional transmission congestion evaluations are normally based on deterministic approaches. One ofrnthe major disadvantages associated with the deterministic approach is that it is unable to fully reflect thernimpacts of the random component failures. The deterministic approach can only answer whether a congestionrnoccurs or not, but is unable to quantify the severity of the congestion. This paper presents a systematicrncongestion evaluation technique using a series of reliability indices including congestion probability, congestionrnfrequency, expected congestion capacity, and energy. These indices can be used to characterize the severityrnof the congestion at both the transmission component and entire system levels. The proposed approachrnincludes a probabilistic congestion evaluation model and a network solution algorithm taking into account thernrandom failures of power system components, such as generating units, transmission lines, and transformers.rnThe entire evaluation approach is based on the non-sequential Monte Carlo technique. The paper also presentsrnstudy results on the change of congestion severity of transmission line and overall system using the proposedrnindices and the effect of some of the parameters on the system congestion. Case studies on the IEEE-RTSrnindicate that the proposed method is effective and feasible. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.