The dynamic nexus between GDP, consumption and exports of BRICS counties: an ARDL cointegration analysis

摘要

The study empirically examines the consumption and export-led growth strategy of BRICS countries. The country-specific time series data have been used to examine the short and long-run impact between the gross domestic product (GDP), export and consumption from 1989 to 2016. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction method are applied for the equilibrium-adjustment analysis. The ARDL bound test confirms the long-run cointegration between the variables of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) and fails to indicate any cointegration in South Africa series. Hence, the empirical evidence shows that both the strategies play a significant role in disequilibrium correction of BRIC countries whereas system analysis has been done in Brazil and Russia series. It implies that Brazil and Russian economic systems have bi-directional long-run causality. However, India and China series have uni-directional long-run causality from export and consumption to GDP whereas South Africa series has only short-run causality.