Capturing ownership behavior of autonomous vehicles in Japan based on a stated preference survey and a mixed logit model with repeated choices

摘要

As an additional effort for exploring the unknowns about the ownership behavior of autonomous vehicles (AVs), we implemented an online stated preference (SP) survey in Japan and collected 1728 responses from car users across the whole country in 2016. The SP choice set included three types of AVs (conditional, high, and full automation) and a conventional vehicle. Each respondent answered three SP profiles. SP Attributes of AVs (additional purchase cost, reduction rate of insurance, reduction rate of permanent parking cost, penetration rate in the market, and release timing to the market) were defined relative to the conventional vehicle. Changes in future income were assumed based on each respondent's historical trend for assisting him/her to show more realistic responses. It was found that on average, respondents are willing to pay an additional 402,233 to 793,611 JPY to purchase an AV in the future. Estimating a mixed logit model with repeated choices and correlations between random-effect parameters following a normal distribution confirmed the significant influence of unobserved and correlated heterogeneities with respect to SP attributes. Both expected and unexpected results with respect to the random-effect variables are observed. Policy implications of analysis results are discussed.