Food policy in Bangladesh 2010: impacts of domestic wheat productivity growth

摘要

Purpose - The purpose of the paper is to estimate wheat productivity in Bangladesh and forecast the future expected population and food requirements in the country by 2010. Design/methodology/approach - This paper reaches the objectives using total factors productivity approach, Box Jenkins approach, and sensitivity analysis for wheat farms in the country. The study used data on wheat during 1972-2002. Findings - In the existing situation, the national average level wheat yield was 1.9 MT/ha that was lower than any other stations. The reasons are late sowing, coupled with lack of seed quality, excess moisture at sowing, lack of fertilizer at reasonable price and timeliness at the farmers' level, and lack of capital. The total productivity grew at an average annual rate of 1.35 percent. Practical implications - The results show that the Bangladeshi government could increase the domestic wheat supply by 56.84, 115.79, 247.37, and 321.58 percent depending, respectively, on the applied model Ⅰ- Ⅳ, that is much higher than the existing level of production. Originality/value - This paper brings together diverse views and fusing them together providing a future path for research and taking suitable policy for wheat production to meet the demand for food.