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A methodology to classify interventions in ports demand series changes applied to Brazilian ports

机译:对港口需求系列变更进行分类的方法,适用于巴西港口

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摘要

The institutional, commercial and economic structure in Brazil has changed. The Brazilian ports have followed changes by government intervention or exogenous interruption in operation or infrastructure, impacting in the dynamics of port demands. The economical series follow tendencies, interrupted by external or intended interventions and computed by empirical approaches measuring the breakpoint or magnitude of interruption in the series. Methodologically, to classify the intervention is an important deal to decision-makers, contributing to select and use dummy variables in the estimation procedure to better model demand and simulate consequences of some politics of increase infrastructure or protect the retro area of the port. This paper aims to apply the intervention impacts technique to classify then. We use the monthly time series of containers demand for Brazilian ports from 2005 to 2011. As result, we have mapped and showed which types of exogenous interruptions have a significant change in ports movement.
机译:巴西的制度,商业和经济结构发生了变化。巴西港口遵循政府干预或外源中断在运营或基础设施中的变化,影响港口需求的动态。经济型序列遵循趋势,由外部或预期的干预措施中断,并通过测量系列中断断点或中断的断点或程度的经验方法来计算。方法论上讲,分类干预是决策者的重要协议,有助于选择和使用估算程序中的虚拟变量来更好地模范需求和模拟一些增加基础设施政治的后果或保护港口的复古区域。本文旨在应用干预影响技术对此进行分类。我们使用2005年至2011年对巴西港口的月度时间系列的需求。结果,我们已经映射并显示了哪些类型的外源中断在港口运动中具有重大变化。

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