Land-cover change dynamics and coastal aquaculture development: a case study in the East Godavari delta, Andhra Pradesh, India using multi-temporal satellite data

摘要

The present study focuses on the identification and quantification of land-cover changes occurring in the coastal stretches of the East Godavari delta, Andhra Pradesh, India. The analysis of series of multi-temporal satellite data provides an accurate quantification and therefore a better understanding of the process of land-cover changes during 1990-2005. Land-cover changes were quantified based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) image differencing and a post-classification comparison approach. The change detection results were examined in terms of the proportion of land-cover classes and change trajectories with particular emphasis on coastal aquaculture development within the study area. The study shows that the total area under aquacultural ponds increased from 2985 ha in 1990 to 7067 ha in 2005. The major changes in the study area occurred during 1990-1994, when 2873 ha of agricultural land and 762 ha of degraded mangroves were converted into aquacultural ponds. The prediction of land-cover distribution in 2010 on the basis of a Markov chain shows a continuing upward trend of the aquaculture area (8267 ha) with less impact on the mangrove area. The analysis predicts that the agricultural land area will continue to decrease from 50 122 to 46 978 ha during 2005-2010.