A robust complementary index for railway maintenance planning based on a probabilistic approach

摘要

A probabilistic Track Performance Index (TPI) is proposed for maintenance prioritization in the railways. TPI evaluates the safety condition in a segment by estimating the derailment probabilities on curves as the track condition representatives. Via Reliability analysing methods and considering track geometry and irregularities, vehicle characteristics, and speed, derailment probability for a segment of the track can be estimated as its TPI. For comparing the performance of different blocks, the higher the TPI, the more critical the safety situation. The method is illustrated through three case studies, and the comparisons between the TPI and deterministic Track Quality Index (TQI) indicate that the probabilistic TPI identifies curves with a high risk of failure that TQI fails to detect. The results indicate applying TQI solely is biased, and TPI can overcome this shortage. Hence, it is suggested that TPI should be used alongside TQI as a complement for more reliable maintenance planning.