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System dynamics modelling for supply chain disruptions

机译:供应链中断的系统动力学建模

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摘要

Unexpected events or black swan events could highly deteriorate supply chain performance. Hence, proactive and reactive strategies should be considered when planning for disruptions in a multi-echelon supply chain. In this study, a system dynamics framework is introduced to observe the supply chain behaviour and evaluate the impacts of disruptions. The model enables the examination of full and partial disruptions and the incorporation of expediting orders after a disturbance. The effects of disruptions on the service levels, costs, profits and inventory levels, of the supply chain are analysed. The usage of the framework and the findings can serve to define disruption policies, and assist in the decisions relating to the supply chain design. After running several scenarios, it was determined that the disruptions happening in the downstream levels have more impacts on the SC performance than the disruptions in the upstream levels. Hence, the disruption policies for the downstream levels should have higher priority. Moreover, the results suggest that expediting after disruptions do not offer benefits to the long-term supply chain performance.
机译:意外的事件或黑色天鹅事件可能会使供应链表现极大恶化。因此,在规划多梯队供应链中的中断时,应考虑主动和反应策略。在本研究中,引入了系统动态框架来观察供应链行为,并评估中断的影响。该模型能够在干扰后检查全部和部分中断和加速订单的融合。分析了供应链的服务水平,成本,利润和库存水平中断的影响。框架的使用和调查结果可以用于定义中断政策,并协助与供应链设计有关的决策。在运行多种情况之后,确定在下游级别中发生的中断对SC性能产生更多影响,而不是上游级别中的中断。因此,下游水平的中断政策应该具有更高的优先级。此外,结果表明,在中断后加速对长期供应链表现没有益处。

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