Impact of risks in foodgrains transportation system: a system dynamics approach

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to model dynamic feedback effects and complex interactions among risks affecting foodgrains transportation using a system dynamics approach. The risk scenario is simulated using a system dynamics model considering risk index values. It has been observed that there is a significant increase in inventory level from 8.39% to 28.4% and vehicle capacity from 8.99% to 28.4% with a change in risk value by 30%. This can help managers to develop inventory and transportation policies. It will, therefore, help to generate risk reduction scenarios for better availability of foodgrains through integrated risk control and mitigation in a supply chain. The key findings drawn for transportation and inventory management of foodgrains will help policy-makers to improve the efficiency of foodgrains supply chain. This research uniquely analyses the dynamic implication of inventory-transportation policies on foodgrains transportation system using system dynamics modelling approach.