Provident decision making by considering dynamic and fuzzy environment for FMS evaluation

摘要

When evaluating complexity, cost and risk increase, it is difficult to make a proper decision. In such situations it is necessary to develop a model which simulates a decision maker's mind and consider both a dynamic and a fuzzy environment. In this study future oriented indices are presented which enable us to consider the effect of future changes in the index value during the decision making process. These future oriented indices are named provident indices. Also in this study to effectively integrate these multiple criteria into the decision making process, based on the analysis of the decision situation in such assessments, a suitable concept is selected. This method is based on the preference ranking organisation method for enrichment evaluations (PROMETHEE) which brings together flexibility and simplicity for the user and is therefore chosen for the enhancement towards the evaluation of fuzzy data on preferences, scores and weights. The model developed to investigate these impacts cannot perfectly reproduce all the events of the real system, but it can consider a fair number of elements of variability, which should be identified and analysed by considering present conditions and prediction about criteria values in future periods. Such a model may provide solutions with a high degree of robustness and reliability, comparable with those obtained by direct experimentation, but with a low computational cost. The uniqueness of this paper lies in two important areas: first, the incorporation of variability fuzzy and provident measures in the performance of alternatives into the decision making process; and second, is in the application of fuzzy PROMETHEE that provides the decision maker with effective alternative choices by identifying significant differences among alternatives and appropriate choices through considered future periods, and presents graphic aids for better interpretation of results. A comprehensive numerical example of a flexible manufacturing system (FMS) is provided to illustrate the results of the analysis. In a real-world manufacturing environment, the dynamics of an FMS and its stochastic characteristics require a specific approach for evaluation. This paper specifically focuses on FMSs due to the complexities involved in their proper evaluation that include factors such as high operational and managerial expertise in system implementation phases, high costs and risks. Due to these, evaluation, justification, and implementation of an FMS have been areas of major concern and importance for practitioners and researchers. In this case, various strategic, economic and operational criteria that envelop quantitative, qualitative, tangible, and intangible factors are considered.