NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS OF MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR COVID-19 IN THE KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA

摘要

The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread rules of the COVID-19 by using numerical methods. We analyze the number of people infected with coronavirus (COVID-19) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, based on data from March 19, 2020 until January 10, 2021. The parameters of the coronavirus transmission growth model are obtained by nonlinear fitting. Various epidemiological models are available to model the transmission of the disease in a given space. One model which captures essentials of the spread is the S-I-R model. The S-I-R model is a simple epidemiological model which can help us grasp some of the terminologies being used and see why this shapes the policy adopted. This paper summarizes the S-I-R epidemiological model and applies it to the situation in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It looks at the effect of contact ratio and also gives us clues for the "flattening of the curve" and the number of people who will catch the disease. We try to know when the pandemic will be on a downturn and life can return to some level of normalcy.