System analysis of possible variants in the development of atomic energy of Russia in the first half of the 21st century

摘要

Results of system analysis of possible variants in the development of atomic energy in Russia, based on a mathematical simulation of fuel and energy industries, are given. A main objective of the presented researches is forming a model of the atomic energy industry as a complex of technological and economic characteristics, which are important for the estimation of perspectives for different variants in development. The present state of the nuclear energy industry as well as the nearest perspectives of its development for ten years are considered. Long-term perspectives are estimated taking into account possible variants of energy complex structure, decommissioning of operating nuclear power plants (NPP) and extension of operation time of NPP with different reactors.