The impact of monetary policy on overall and sectoral economic growth: evidence from Tunisian central bank in crisis periods

摘要

The paper aims to investigate the impact of monetary policy conduct of Tunisian central bank on overall and sectoral economic growth, particularly over crisis periods. Empirically, we have applied a Vector Error Correction Model analysis using quarterly data over the period 2000-2018. It is observed that in the long-term, overall and sector economic growth are positively correlated with key interest rate and negatively with inflation. Looking at the separate impact on the activity sector, we find that the manufacturing and services sectors are the most influenced by a change in key interest rate. While, the agricultural sector is the most negatively influenced by inflation. However, the economic crises and the approved credits respectively, influence negatively and positively the relationship between monetary policy and economic growth. The impact of changes in key interest rate remains weaker in a crisis period and improved by increased credits.