METHOD FOR FORECASTING DI BASED ON TRIZ TECHNOLOGY SYSTEM EVOLUTION THEORY

摘要

Disruptive Innovation (DI) is an effective method for a new firm to enter mature market. According to the composing analysis of the technical system for the product, six kinds of typical state in the technical system process can be detected. In accordance with technology system evolution analysis, two kinds of evolutionary technologies - mainstream evolutionary technologies and laggard evolutionary technologies - can be detected. Then, the conditions for forecasting DI technologies are established. Based on evolution path lines of TRIZ, the potential DI can be forecasted. As a case study, the video game console system is investigated. The study shows that the adoption of TRIZ evolution theory in forecasting disruptive technologies of product is feasible.