Benchmarking robustness of load forecasting models under data integrity attacks

摘要

As the internet's footprint continues to expand, cybersecurity is becoming a major concern for both governments and the private sector. One such cybersecurity issue relates to data integrity attacks. This paper focuses on the power industry, where the forecasting processes rely heavily on the quality of the data. Data integrity attacks are expected to harm the performances of forecasting systems, which will have a major impact on both the financial bottom line of power companies and the resilience of power grids. This paper reveals the effect of data integrity attacks on the accuracy of four representative load forecasting models (multiple linear regression, support vector regression, artificial neural networks, and fuzzy interaction regression). We begin by simulating some data integrity attacks through the random injection of some multipliers that follow a normal or uniform distribution into the load series. Then, the four aforementioned load forecasting models are used to generate one-year-ahead ex post point forecasts in order to provide a comparison of their forecast errors. The results show that the support vector regression model is most robust, followed closely by the multiple linear regression model, while the fuzzy interaction regression model is the least robust of the four. Nevertheless, all four models fail to provide satisfying forecasts when the scale of the data integrity attacks becomes large. This presents a serious challenge to both load forecasters and the broader forecasting community: the generation of accurate forecasts under data integrity attacks. We construct our case study using the publicly-available data from Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012. At the end, we also offer an overview of potential research topics for future studies. (C) 2017 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.