Uncertainty in ERP-Controlled Manufacturing Systems

摘要

The use of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) is becoming increasingly prevalent in many modern manufacturing enterprises. However, knowledge of their performance when perturbed simultaneously by several significant uncertainties is not as widespread as it should have been. This paper presents the developmental and experimental work on modeling uncertainty within an ERP multi-product, multi-level dependent demand manufacturing planning, and scheduling system in a simulation model developed using ARENA/SIMAN. To enumerate how uncertainty affects the performance of an ERP-controlled manufacturing system, the percentages of Finished Products Delivered Late (FPDL) and Parts Delivered Late (PDL) are measured. Sensitivity analysis shows that PDL gives a more accurate effect. Simulation results are analyzed using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), which identifies four uncertainties; namely, late delivery from suppliers, machine breakdowns, unexpected/urgent changes to machine assignments, and customer design changes, which significantly affect PDL. Some uncertainties are found significantly interactive in two and three ways. They produce either knock-on and/or compound effects, a factor not generally recognized as a criterion for decision-making.