Decision model of construction project bid based on information diffusion and possibility theory

摘要

A bid decision model for construction enterprises is put forward in view of lack of data and uncertainty as to quantitative relation existing in bid decision. The normal diffusion function is adopted to generate information matrixes using small sample data, then fuzzy relation matrixes are obtained. The bid decision is made through approximate reasoning and fuzzy possibility theory. The decision model includes two parts which are selection of bid projects and decision on bid price. In the decision process, the operating status of competitor is regarded as an important influence factor on its bid price and the possibility that decision party wins the bid, and the fuzzy relation between awarded contract price and settlement price is taken into account. The fuzzy possibility distribution that the decision party's bid price is lower than the competitor's is acquired through approximate reasoning. Furthermore, the fuzzy possibility distribution of actual profit is figured out. At last, the bid decision index is the fuzzy possibility expectation. Feasibility of the model mentioned in the paper is proved by an example. In a word, the paper proposes a new method utilizing small sample data to make bid decision.