Multiple stochastic correlations modeling for microgrid reliability and economic evaluation using pair-copula function

摘要

The hourly wind speed, solar insolation and load power have probabilistic characteristics. However, among them, there are multiple stochastic correlations that are difficult to be modeled using traditional methods. This paper presents a stochastic correlation modeling method using the pair-copula function to capture the multiple stochastic correlations among wind speed, solar insolation and load power. This paper also presents the procedure for generating a synthetic set of stochastic correlated data based on pair-copula function. The proposed modeling method and data generating procedure are incorporated into microgrid reliability and economic evaluation using sequential Monte Carlo simulation. A test on IEEE-RBTS shows the effectiveness of the pair-copula function based reliability and economic assessment method. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.