Development of injury prediction models for advanced automatic collision notification based on Japanese accident data

摘要

In this paper, injury prediction models for estimating serious injury risk of occupants were developed based on accident data available in the Japanese statistical DB. Four types of model by crash direction (frontal crash model, near-side crash model, far-side crash model, rear-end crash model) were developed. These models were developed by using a logistic regression modelling technique based on data from Japanese ITARDA (Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis) police-reported statistics, a large database for the last decade. Risk factors of the model are delta-V, belt use, multiple impact crash and occupant's age. Serious injury risk for four crash directions was estimated by the model. A comparison has been done between estimated serious injury risk and actual injury of Japanese ITARDA in-depth accident data (micro-data). The results show that the injury prediction model has a possibility for predicting injury risk based on onboard data and its application for post-crash safety.