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机译:社论

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摘要

This double-issue contains 11 papers invited for the first special issue on "Computational methods for Russian economic and financial modelling". It was an attempt to explore and bring together practical, state-of-the-art applications of computational techniques with a particular focus on Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The response was beyond expectations and managed to cover a wide range of issues, so that a double-issue was considered: the first dealing with Finance and the second with Economics. Fantazzini and Fomichev propose a set of multivariate models, including both Google data and macroeconomic aggregates, which greatly improve the forecasting of the real price of oil. They show that models, including both Google data and macroeconomic aggregates statistically outperform the simple no-change forecast in the short term, while multivariate models including only Google data outperform the simple no-change forecast also for medium and long-term forecasts up to 24 steps ahead. In this perspective, using Google search data can be a simple and powerful way to summarise a large amount of information worldwide.
机译:这本双期论文包含11篇论文,它们被邀请作为“俄罗斯经济和金融模型的计算方法”的第一期特刊。这是尝试探索并汇集实用的,最先进的计算技术应用程序,尤其着重于俄罗斯和独立国家联合体的尝试。回应超出了预期,并且涵盖了广泛的问题,因此考虑了双重问题:第一个问题涉及金融,第二个问题涉及经济学。 Fantazzini和Fomichev提出了一组多元模型,包括Google数据和宏观经济总量,这极大地改善了石油实际价格的预测。他们表明,从短期来看,包括Google数据和宏观经济总量在内的模型在统计上均优于简单的无变化预测,而仅包含Google数据的多元模型在中长期预测(甚至24个)方面也优于简单的无变化预测。前进。从这个角度来看,使用Google搜索数据可以是一种汇总全球大量信息的简单有效的方法。

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