Decision Making in Complex Environments

摘要

Bayesian probability theory, signal detection theory, and operational decision theory are combined to understand how one can operate effectively in complex environments, which requires uncommon skill sets for performance optimization. The analytics of uncertainty in the form of Bayesian theorem applied to a moving object is presented, followed by how operational decision making is applicable to all complex environments. Large-scale dynamic systems have erratic behavior, so there is a need to effectively manage risk. Risk management needs to be addressed from the standpoint of convergent technology applications and performance modeling. The example of an airplane during takeoff shows how a risk continuum needs to be developed. An unambiguous demarcation line for low, moderate, and high risk is made and the decision analytical structure for all operational decisions is developed. Three mission-critical decisions are discussed to optimize performance: to continue or abandon the mission, the approach go-around maneuver, and the takeoff goo-go decision.