LNG Export Projects-a Historical View

摘要

History has shown that the success of LNG export projects, or lack thereof, has been influenced by many factors, several of which are outside the sponsors' control. Having sufficient gas resources to fully utilise an LNG plant for at least 20 years is, of course, a prerequisite to success. As a review of key commercial, technical, contractual, regulatory, and other legal developments in this chapter has evidenced, however, history suggests other factors may be as important in determining whether a project will be able to proceed without delay, such as: (1) LNG marketing timed with sufficient buyer demand; (2) appropriate governmental leadership and support; (3) predictable LNG prices that underpin project economics; (4) technology that enables cost effective LNG production, transportation, and regasification; (5) controlled construction costs; and (6) sufficient funding from third parties. Ocean transportation of LNG, which arose from US pioneers who turned a failed Mississippi River project into a niche business first supplying countries switching to natural gas as a pollution-reducing move, has now grown into a vibrant worldwide industry. US companies (chiefly Continental Oil/Union Stockyards, Phillips-Marathon, and Esso) led during these early years, developing liquefaction and shipping innovations; investing in and constructing export projects in Alaska, Algeria, and Libya; and successfully marketing long-term LNG sales to UK, French, Japanese, Italian, and Spanish buyers. During the 1970s, several new LNG exporters benefited from further increases in gas usage (especially in Asia) as a result of rising oil prices and insecurity of energy supplies. Growth during the 1980s slowed and projects were delayed, but Australia and Malaysia and eventually found the necessary sales to proceed. The 1990s saw Qatar finally find success, along with new LNG export projects in Africa, the Middle East, and South America. LNG put the "niche fuel" label behind it between 2000 and 2010, when LNG production more than doubled and LNG became a truly global industry with almost 90 import terminals spread across the world. Since 2010, unconventional gas resources in Australia and the US have both assured the industry of plentiful supplies to meet continually growing demand for imports and provided a host of issues and challenges as to what the future holds for LNG.