Modeling of Crowd Evacuation With Assailants via a Fuzzy Logic Approach

摘要

Modeling and analyzing the behaviors and characteristics of crowds in emergency is a challenging task with significant practical meanings. In this paper, a fuzzy logic approach is proposed to describe crowd evacuation behaviors, taking into account the effect of assailants. First, the microscopic pedestrian model and the assailant model are developed according to their different intentions in evacuation scenarios. Pedestrians are further divided into three categories depending upon whether they are affected by assailants. The individual's behaviors are determined by the integration of recommendations of local obstacle-avoiding behavior, regional path-searching behavior, and global goal-seeking behavior with adjustable weighting factors, which are automatically adjusted based on the perceptual information obtained from the complex interaction with surrounding environments. Then, the proposed pedestrian model is validated by comparing the simulated fundamental diagram with a large variety of empirical and experimental data. Finally, simulations in a hall with a single exit are implemented. It is shown that the model can truly reappear typical collective phenomena such as “arching and clogging” and “faster-is-slower effect.” The variations of the model and scenario parameters, such as pedestrian's desired speed, exit width, assailant's desired speed, and duration of attack, greatly influence the evacuation efficiency. In addition, a novel “circuity phenomenon,” i.e., pedestrians will give up the direction of goal when they encounter assailants or they see assailants and, at the same time, perceive a very crowded exit, is observed in crowd evacuation simulations.