Maturing Economies In the Persian Gulf

摘要

Emerging markets in general have had a stormy 18 months or so. But thanks to political stability and robust economies, it is the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates-that have stood out as oases of calm among the world's emerging economies The International Monetary Fund predicts gross domestic product growth of 4.2 percent for the GCC based on exchange rates pegged to the US dollar and strong sovereign balance sheets. They are allrunning large external surpluses with comfortable buffers. The GCC has remained relatively immune to political unrest on its border and in the surrounding Middle East & North African (MENA) region so far. Neither the difficulties between Israel and Palestine, nor the threat of ISIS, the militant Islamic State movement in Syria and Iraq, have spilled over. "Political risk used to knock confidence in the Gulf, but not this time," explains Paul Gamble, director, Africa and Middle East sovereigns group, at ratings agency Fitch in London.